AB118. 106. Future forecast for hip fractures: a growing problem for the health service

Background: Hip fractures represent a significant cause of morbidity within the elderly population and are an increasing burden on an already stretched health service. University Hospital Limerick is the primary provider of acute orthopaedic care to approximately 400,000 people in the Limerick, Clare, and North Tipperary. With a large and ageing population, it is vital that trends in service provision requirements are understood. The objective of this study was to predict future trends in hip fracture case load in over 65s to guide health service providers in the allocation of resources for these patients in the future.

Methods: A review of the data recorded by the Irish Hip Fracture Database was performed to provide information on changing patient demographics, length of stay, and time to surgery. Population data was obtained from the national census for 2011 and 2016. Population projections were provided by the Central Statistics office (CSO) for 2021, 2026, and 2031 to determine predicted hip fracture figures for these years.

Results: Between 2013 and 2018, the number of hip fractures treated in University Hospital Limerick has increased by 35% while in the same period the average length of stay for these patients has increased from 10 to 16 days. A further increase of 34% is predicted between 2018 and 2026 with a predicted increase of over 100% in hip fracture cases between 2013 and 2031.

Conclusions: This study provides vital information for health service providers for the growing issue of hip fractures within the elderly population and will help guide them with regards to service allocation and support into the future.

Keywords: Hip fracture; orthopaedic; trauma